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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 13 at the 26

New England Patriots 3 – New York Jets 17

What Actually Happened

(4:59) 3-S.Gostkowski 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +0.40 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.10 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 26, worth -1.19 EP
KICK +1.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 36, worth -1.99 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model