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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 15 at the 55

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(6:57) 19-B.Anger punts 53 yards to NO 2, Center-46-C.Tinker, downed by JAX-35-D.McCray.

The Three Options

GO -1.44 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.07 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 55, worth -3.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 16, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model