Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 11 at the 66

Jacksonville Jaguars 19 – New Orleans Saints 38

(9:55) 19-B.Anger punts 49 yards to NO 17, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 31-J.Byrd.

The Three Options

GO -1.75 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.94 EP
66% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 66, worth -3.62 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model