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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 43

New Orleans Saints 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(11:48) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short middle to 10-B.Cooks pushed ob at JAX 20 for 23 yards (37-J.Cyprien). Pass 13, YAC 10

The Three Options

GO +0.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.76 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 43, worth -1.91 EP
KICK -0.18 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.55 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT +0.13 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 12, worth +0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model