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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 4 at the 19

New Orleans Saints 21 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(4:01) 5-K.Forbath 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +1.80 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.93 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 19, worth -0.54 EP
KICK +1.99 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 29, worth -1.17 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model