Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 15 at the 80

New Orleans Saints 21 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(7:13) 6-T.Morstead punts 52 yards to JAX 28, Center-47-J.Drescher. 13-R.Greene MUFFS catch, and recovers at JAX 28. 13-R.Greene pushed ob at JAX 32 for 4 yards (33-J.Sanford).

The Three Options

GO -2.43 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.04 EP
70% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 80, worth -4.32 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model