Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 12 at the 82

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – New Orleans Saints 21

What Actually Happened

(9:12) 19-B.Anger punts 48 yards to NO 34, Center-46-C.Tinker. 38-T.Cadet to NO 41 for 7 yards (58-J.Tripp). PENALTY on NO-20-B.Dixon, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NO 35.

The Three Options

GO -2.87 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.06 EP
66% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 82, worth -4.91 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model