Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 12 at the 79

Miami Dolphins 9 – Indianapolis Colts 15

(14:23) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 54 yards to IND 25, Center-92-J.Denney. 11-Q.Bray to IND 41 for 16 yards (31-M.Thomas; 42-S.Paysinger).

The Three Options

GO -2.58 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.60 EP
70% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 79, worth -4.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model