Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 61

Indianapolis Colts 15 – Miami Dolphins 9

(:36) (Punt formation) 1-P.McAfee punts 38 yards to MIA 23, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 14-J.Landry.

The Three Options

GO -1.22 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.46 EP
63% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 61, worth -3.37 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model