Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 13 at the 58

Miami Dolphins 6 – Indianapolis Colts 15

(1:16) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 44 yards to IND 14, Center-92-J.Denney, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.75 EP
73% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 58, worth -2.89 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model