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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 13 at the 38

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(6:00) 2-D.Butler punts 34 yards to GB 4, impetus ends at GB 1, Center-82-M.Leach, downed by ARI-10-B.Golden.

The Three Options

GO +0.18 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.54 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 38, worth -1.57 EP
KICK +0.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.64 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT +0.26 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.35 EP