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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 16 at the 67

Arizona Cardinals 38 – Green Bay Packers 8

What Actually Happened

(10:04) 2-D.Butler punts 54 yards to GB 13, Center-82-M.Leach. 33-M.Hyde to GB 13 for no gain (28-J.Bethel).

The Three Options

GO -1.71 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.66 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 25, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model