Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 18 at the 54

Green Bay Packers 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

(10:52) 8-T.Masthay punts 49 yards to ARI 5, Center-59-R.Lovato, downed by GB-39-D.Goodson.

The Three Options

GO -1.68 EP

23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.45 EP
77% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 54, worth -3.24 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model