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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 2 at the 2

Green Bay Packers 8 – Arizona Cardinals 38

What Actually Happened

(:09) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 17-D.Adams to ARI 2 for no gain (28-J.Bethel).

The Three Options

GO +3.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.83 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 2, worth +0.11 EP
KICK +1.84 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -1.00 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model