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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 2 at the 55

Green Bay Packers 0 – Arizona Cardinals 10

What Actually Happened

(4:49) (Punt formation) 8-T.Masthay left end to ARI 48 for 7 yards (96-K.Martin).

The Three Options

GO +0.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.41 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 55, worth -3.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 16, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model