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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 1

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(5:51) 7-C.Catanzaro 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler.

The Three Options

GO +4.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.29 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 1, worth +0.54 EP
KICK +2.30 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.58 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.99 EP