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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 82

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:41) 2-D.Butler punts 42 yards to GB 40, Center-82-M.Leach, fair catch by 33-M.Hyde.

The Three Options

GO -1.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +1.39 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 82, worth -4.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.83 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 40, worth -1.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP