Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 18 at the 75

Green Bay Packers 0 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(10:57) 8-T.Masthay punts 45 yards to ARI 30, Center-59-R.Lovato. 21-P.Peterson MUFFS catch, recovered by ARI-29-C.Clemons at ARI 27. 29-C.Clemons to ARI 27 for no gain (39-D.Goodson).

The Three Options

GO -2.79 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.09 EP
75% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 75, worth -4.45 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model