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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 71

Kansas City Chiefs 10 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(12:46) 2-D.Colquitt punts 43 yards to CLE 28, Center-41-J.Winchester. 11-T.Benjamin to CLE 44 for 16 yards (17-C.Conley).

The Three Options

GO -0.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.38 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 71, worth -3.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.25 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 29, worth -1.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.23 EP