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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 5 at the 33

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(4:31) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith scrambles up the middle to CLE 24 for 9 yards (36-K.Williams).

The Three Options

GO +1.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.39 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 33, worth -1.48 EP
KICK +0.53 EP
  • 61% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 43, worth -2.08 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model