Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 87

Cleveland Browns 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

(7:09) 8-A.Lee punts 47 yards to KC 40, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.84 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.40 EP
57% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 87, worth -5.31 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model