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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 4 at the 64

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – Cleveland Browns 13

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 2-D.Colquitt punts 34 yards to CLE 30, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +0.54 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 64, worth -2.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.24 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 22, worth -1.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model