4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 18 at the 18

Cleveland Browns 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

What Actually Happened

(8:31) 6-T.Coons 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +0.24 EP
  • 18% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.75 EP
  • 82% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 18, worth -0.98 EP
KICK +1.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 28, worth -1.48 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model