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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 53

Los Angeles Rams 14 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(14:57) 6-J.Hekker punts 49 yards to TB 4, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-46-C.Harkey.

The Three Options

GO -0.43 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +3.03 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 53, worth -2.73 EP
KICK -1.36 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.45 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model