Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 10 at the 85

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

(6:47) 6-J.Hekker punts 46 yards to TB 39, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 43-B.Rainey.

The Three Options

GO -2.82 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.29 EP
67% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 85, worth -4.84 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model