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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 5 at the 50

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(8:50) 5-J.Schum punts 35 yards to LA 15, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 11-T.Austin.

The Three Options

GO -0.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.72 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 50, worth -3.08 EP
KICK -1.62 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 14, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model