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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 1

Los Angeles Rams 28 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13

What Actually Happened

(10:42) 4-G.Zuerlein 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +3.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.50 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 1, worth +0.21 EP
KICK +1.51 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.37 EP
PUNT -0.84 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.88 EP