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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 14 at the 14

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Los Angeles Rams 21

What Actually Happened

(9:19) 10-C.Barth 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum.

The Three Options

GO +1.47 EP
  • 24% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.22 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 14, worth -0.04 EP
KICK +2.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24, worth -0.94 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model