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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 8 at the 40

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(6:30) 1-P.McAfee punts 29 yards to HOU 11, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 18-C.Shorts III.

The Three Options

GO +0.32 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.98 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 40, worth -1.34 EP
KICK +0.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.92 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.15 EP
PUNT +0.58 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model