4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 14

Houston Texans 13 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 8-N.Novak 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

The Three Options

GO +0.73 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +2.61 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 14, worth -0.83 EP
KICK +1.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24, worth -1.32 EP
PUNT -0.74 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model