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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 45

Houston Texans 6 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(12:45) (Run formation) 63-K.Lamm reported in as eligible. 28-A.Blue right end to IND 44 for 1 yard (21-V.Davis).

The Three Options

GO +0.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.53 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 45, worth -2.37 EP
KICK -0.84 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.75 EP
PUNT -0.60 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 12, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model