4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 66

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Houston Texans 6

What Actually Happened

(:44) 1-P.McAfee punts 55 yards to HOU 11, Center-45-M.Overton. 12-K.Mumphery to HOU 10 for -1 yards (27-W.Guy).

The Three Options

GO +0.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.88 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 66, worth -3.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 24, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP