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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 48

Houston Texans 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(12:24) (Shotgun) 33-A.Hunt left end pushed ob at IND 27 for 21 yards (29-M.Adams).

The Three Options

GO +0.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.79 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 48, worth -2.94 EP
KICK -1.28 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -3.00 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 14, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model