4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 15 at the 46

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(2:23) 1-P.McAfee punts 38 yards to HOU 8, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 18-C.Shorts III.

The Three Options

GO -0.77 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.79 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 46, worth -2.16 EP
KICK -0.54 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 13, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model