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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 39

Houston Texans 0 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(4:15) 8-N.Novak 56 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

The Three Options

GO -0.20 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.80 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 39, worth -1.87 EP
KICK +0.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.21 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 48, worth -2.65 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model