4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 4 at the 11

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(6:17) 4-A.Vinatieri 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

The Three Options

GO +2.03 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.44 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP
KICK +2.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 22, worth -0.69 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model