Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 18 at the 91

Houston Texans 0 – Indianapolis Colts 7

(8:39) 9-S.Lechler punts 45 yards to IND 46, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-Q.Bray ran ob at HOU 35 for 19 yards.

The Three Options

GO -3.58 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.14 EP
73% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 91, worth -5.32 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model