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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 5 at the 42

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(11:29) 1-P.McAfee punts 35 yards to HOU 7, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 18-C.Shorts III.

The Three Options

GO +0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.62 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 42, worth -1.84 EP
KICK -0.14 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.45 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP