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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 15 at the 75

Houston Texans 0 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(13:01) 9-S.Lechler punts 55 yards to IND 20, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-Q.Bray to HOU 47 for 33 yards (45-J.Prosch).

The Three Options

GO -2.76 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.64 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 75, worth -4.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 32, worth -1.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model