Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 13 at the 83

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Denver Broncos 7

(3:25) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 44 yards to DEN 39, Center-60-G.Warren, fair catch by 10-E.Sanders.

The Three Options

GO -2.72 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.69 EP
68% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 83, worth -4.75 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model