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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 10 at the 41

Denver Broncos 27 – Pittsburgh Steelers 34

What Actually Happened

(1:46) (Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler pass incomplete deep middle to 10-E.Sanders (22-W.Gay).

The Three Options

GO -0.16 EP
What Happened
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +2.76 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 41, worth -1.37 EP
KICK +0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.69 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model