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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 56

Pittsburgh Steelers 27 – Denver Broncos 27

What Actually Happened

(9:20) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 40 yards to DEN 16, Center-60-G.Warren, downed by PIT-57-T.Garvin.

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.48 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 56, worth -2.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 17, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP