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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 20 at the 82

Denver Broncos 27 – Pittsburgh Steelers 20

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 52 yards to PIT 30, Center-46-A.Brewer. 84-A.Brown ran ob at PIT 40 for 10 yards.

The Three Options

GO -3.21 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.85 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 82, worth -4.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -2.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 40, worth -2.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model