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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 10 at the 51

Denver Broncos 27 – Pittsburgh Steelers 20

What Actually Happened

(5:45) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 42 yards to PIT 9, Center-46-A.Brewer. 84-A.Brown to PIT 28 for 19 yards (85-V.Green). PENALTY on PIT-46-W.Johnson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 3 yards, enforced at PIT 6.

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.03 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 51, worth -2.80 EP
KICK -1.75 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.80 EP
PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model