Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 8 at the 87

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

(13:29) 10-K.Huber punts 49 yards to SF 38, Center-46-C.Harris. 10-B.Ellington to SF 43 for 5 yards (46-C.Harris).

The Three Options

GO -2.79 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.56 EP
58% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 87, worth -5.18 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model