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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 53

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 5-B.Pinion punts 42 yards to CIN 11, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 19-B.Tate.

The Three Options

GO -0.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.96 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 53, worth -2.73 EP
KICK -1.80 EP
  • 15% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.45 EP
  • 85% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 15, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model