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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 63

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(4:29) 5-B.Pinion punts 41 yards to CIN 22, Center-86-K.Nelson. 19-B.Tate to CIN 19 for -3 yards (47-M.Cromartie).

The Three Options

GO +0.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.32 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 63, worth -3.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 21, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.04 EP