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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
?
Q1
Cincinnati Bengals
4th & 1 at the 27
Cincinnati Bengals 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0
What Actually Happened
(6:29) 25-G.Bernard left guard to SF 28 for -1 yards (53-N.Bowman).
The Three Options
GO
+2.39 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.15 EP
- 32% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 27, worth -1.38 EP
KICK
+0.93 EP
- 76% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
- 24% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 37, worth -2.28 EP
PUNT
-0.31 EP
- San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
