4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 78

Cincinnati Bengals 24 – San Francisco 49ers 14

What Actually Happened

(1:36) 10-K.Huber punts 55 yards to SF 23, Center-46-C.Harris. 10-B.Ellington to SF 40 for 17 yards (59-E.Lamur).

The Three Options

GO -1.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.47 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 78, worth -3.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.48 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 35, worth -1.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model