Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 5 at the 75

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

(9:02) 5-B.Pinion punts 53 yards to CIN 22, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 19-B.Tate.

The Three Options

GO -1.64 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.71 EP
57% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 75, worth -4.15 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model